Earlier in 1965, Jimmy Davidson, head of economics and planning in Shell's exploration and production division, brought in Ted Newland and Pierre Wack for Long Range Studies. That decision quietly changed how planning was done at Shell. It moved the company from traditional forecasting to scenario planning.
With Newland and Wack's work, Shell was able to anticipate the 1973 oil shock and position itself well. They invested heavily in converting heavy oil into light oil, which at the time was mainly used for heating and could be replaced by coal or gas. Jan Choufoer, who coordinated Shell's refinery activities, pushed for developing an industrial process called “cracking” so they could convert heavy fuels into light fuels at scale. The key was not just seeing the possible futures, but preparing concrete options and aligning the wider system around them.
That same pattern shows up today. Whether it is the shift from petrol to EVs or from dining out to online ordering, companies that think in scenarios and then act across the supply chain still pull ahead.
Tata Motors is a clear example. They launched their first commercial electric vehicle, the Tigor EV, in June 2019 after earlier prototypes and a government tender won in 2017. But the real work had started earlier with scenario thinking.
Scenario 1: Limited EV adoption in India because of range anxiety.
Plan: They avoided building an expensive dedicated EV platform at the start. Instead they engineered their existing ICE platforms for the Tigor and Nexon.
Scenario 2: Government and institutional buyers would purchase EVs because range was less of a concern for them.
Plan: They targeted institutional customers first and secured the early EESL tender for 10,000 electric cars.
Scenario 3: Oil price volatility would push the government to offer stronger EV incentives.
Plan: They built the “One Tata” ecosystem. Tata Power for charging infrastructure, Tata AutoComp for localisation, and later Agratas for local cell manufacturing.
All three plans required forward thinking and close alignment across the group. That approach helped Tata reach around 43% EV market share and secure an early-mover position.
Domino's followed a similar logic. They had already launched online ordering in India in 2012, but in 2022 they upgraded their digital and logistics systems to support a 20-minute delivery promise, anticipating the post-COVID rise of food delivery platforms.
Scenario 1: Customer behaviour would shift further from physical stores to online orders.
Plan: They redesigned stores into “Pizza Theater” layouts that clearly separate delivery drivers from walk-in customers.
Scenario 2: Online orders would create much higher sales volume in certain areas.
Plan: They used a “fortressing” approach, mapping delivery territories so that when a store became highly profitable they could split the area and open a second nearby outlet.
Scenario 3: Drivers might prefer the flexible hours offered by third-party delivery apps.
Plan: They modelled regional driver retention. If local apps started offering heavy incentives, Domino's could decide how much to raise internal pay or performance bonuses to keep their fleet stable.
By treating the stores, the driver network and the planning process as one connected system, Domino's ended up with one of the top downloaded food delivery apps in India and stronger profits compared with McDonald's and Pizza Hut in the same market.
What Shell began in 1965 still holds. The pace is faster now and the specific situations are different, but the core remains the same. Companies that use scenario planning to build adaptability, keep stakeholders aligned, and stay ready to execute are the ones that pull away from the rest.